US Open Draw Preview 2018.

Here is my preview of the Open. Starting with the men I will give you my tips quarter by quarter. I am looking forward to these two weeks, arguably my favourite two of the tennis calendar. I will also be making another appearance at this fantastic event and indeed, city.

In the men’s outright I think Rafa has been given the perfect half. Anderson, Khachanov and Edmund are all in the Spaniard’s quarter, all players he will feel like his game matches up well against, keeping him fresh. Shapovalov is possibly the guy who would like his chances against Nadal. I can only see one player right now that I think can beat him though in this half and that is unquestionably Juan Martin Del Potro. We know that is a possibility should they meet in the semis. Before facing Nadal though Delpo will have to potentially take out Muzza, Tsitsipas and then one of Isner, Stan, Dimitrov or Raonic. The draw certainly could have been kinder on the Argentine. Rafa should still be pretty fresh as I say by that stage. 8/11 won’t get you rich but it should end in a payout.

2018 US Open Tennis Championships - Qualifications and training session

 

If I had to pick a selection in the second quarter, I would go with my boy Stefanos Tsitspas, who you can get generally at 9/1 – 10/1. It might be too early for the young Greek superstar but he has shown me enough to think it may be worth giving him another go here. I am not one for tipping favourites continuously and though I think Delpo has every chance of making the last 4, something is telling me to steer clear of the 11/4. Isner would have been another selection but after Wimbledon and Atlanta he seems to have run out of steam, maybe saving himself for New York but it is not a risk I can take. Stan has certainly been improving and probably should beat Dimitrov again like he did at Wimbledon. However, there are still too many doubts about him to be getting financially involved.

tsitsipasusopenpreview2018.jpg

 

The third quarter looks a very open one. Sascha Zverev and Marin Cilic are the top two favourites for this section but I feel the winner may come from somewhere else here. It really should be Cilic in my opinion, but he has let me down countless times before and its when the draw looks there for the taking the Croat has come up short in recent years. I won’t be getting heavily involved in this quarter, so I think i will go for a couple of bigger prices in Frances Tiafoe and Alex De Minaur. Two youngsters who have caught the eye this year. Yes it is probably too soon for either but I am willing to give them a go, Tiafoe is between 33/1 and 40/1 and De Minaur is available at 50/1 – 66/1.

taifoeusopenpreview2018.jpg

 

In the fourth quarter I think Novak Djokovic should have too much for everyone here and as a result, meet Rafa in the showpiece on the Arthur Ashe. You can get odds against due to the Federer-Express being in the same section (11/10). Djokovic has still not reached his maximum peak but it was still enough to win Wimbledon and Cincinnati (where he beat Federer). This bodes well for the Serb. Should Kyrgios be able to get to the third round against Federer, that may well soften Roger up a bit for the rounds that lie ahead. For a cover, I would go for a ridiculous tip in Fabio Fognini. The conditions probably aren’t to his suiting in NYC but at 66/1 and a winner in Los Cabos, it is worth a small punt for cover. He is always capable of beating anyone on his day the Italian.

djokovicusioenpreview2018

 

I think Nadal is an each-way bet to nothing on the outright, the 7/2 and 10/3 has now vanished but if you can still get on at 3/1 or 11/4 please feel free to do so.

Outright – Nadal (Each-way).

1st Quarter – Nadal – Main bet.

2nd Quarter – Stefanos Tsitsipas (small stakes).

3rd Quarter – Alex De Minaur/ Frances Tiafoe (small stakes).

4th Quarter – Main bet Djokovic and a small stakes cover on Fognini.

Feel free to have a go on any of these small stakes bets on the outrights too if you just want to back huge prices. Probably best to use the Betfair exchange for these.

 

In the Women’s singles.

The first quarter might be one I leave alone. I am trying not to go all in here with my heart ruling my head. Serena is in this section, with top seed Simona Halep who is the inform player. Maria Sakkari might go a few rounds at a big price as Ash Barty probably will at a slightly shorter one. You will find out more about this no bet later in the article.

 

In the second quarter, I am very tempted by Sloane Stephens who is the favourite for this section. Like with Delpo though there is a big question mark lingering in the back of my head. Sloane is a big match player with a strong mentality, but this is the first time she has had to defend a Grand Slam and that is a totally different proposition and not one she is used to. Vika Azarenka is lurking unseeded in her section and at the bottom of the quarter is Elina Svitolina, who still flatters to deceive in the majors. For this reason, I am going to go with Julia Goerges as my main bet at 8/1 – 10/1 and then have a cover on the solid Elise Mertens at 11/1 – 12/1. Goerges did me a huge favour when I tipped her for her quarter at Wimbledon and I don’t see why she won’t go close again here. She has started to believe in herself a lot more and that is a major factor. Mertens is a solid operator who usually beats who she should and she did beat a tired looking Sloane in Cincy recently.

juliagoergesusopempreview2018.jpg

 

In the third quarter, I have been tearing my hair out. Angie Kerber hasn’t shown me enough to think that she is backable at 5/2, at Wimbledon she had form coming into it when I tipped her up, she hasn’t here. I can’t have Sharapova, Garcia or Konta, which leaves me with Madison Keys, Jelena Ostapenko and possibly Dom Cibulkova as my potential winners. Cibulkova has only played the one event since Wimbledon and got comfortably beaten by Julia Goerges in New Haven last week. So it leaves me with Keys (5/1) and Ostapenko (10/1 – 12/1). Keys looked in reasonably decent nick in her only event after Wimbledon in Cincy. Also as last years runner-up, she knows her way through the draw here but won’t have the attention or focus on her that Sloane will. Keys also beat Kerber in Cincy. Ostapenko might be worth a saver, she hasn’t done that much since SW19 but she is a player that turns up for the slams.

madisonkeysusopenpreview2018.jpg

 

In the fourth quarter, I actually cannot see past the top two in the betting, both at backable prices though in a highly competitive section. Kvitova is 3/1 and Kiki Bertens is 6/1. Second seed Caroline Wozniacki finally says she is 100% fit but it is too much of a risk to believe she is back on what we have seen in the build up. Obviously, she has a decent record in NYC and if fit she should go close, but I am going to swerve it. Naomi Osaka says she is feeling the pressure of her Indian Wells victory and Kasatkina seems to have checked out after Wimbledon, though still a top player. Aryna Sabalenka is in fine form but has surely overplayed coming into the event now. Kvitova seems to be there or there abouts of late and Bertens has really kicked on and is growing in confidence, especially since her win in Charleston and runners-up spot in Madrid this season. These look the bets to side with. I think I will back Bertens for a larger stake and Kvitova to cover. Bertens has beaten Petra in Canada and Cincy recently.

bertensusopenpreview2019.jpg

 

That leads me to the outright, as I haven’t bet on the first quarter I am going to go with the ‘Double Chance’ that is available with Betfair sportsbook and Paddy Powers. Serena and Halep can be backed at 13/5 (or better still back them individually for the same stake at 13/2), meaning you get both players rolled into one bet, a two for one job. Halep has been the standout performer so far on the US hardcourts and as we all know if Rena gets it going she will take some beating, look at Wimbledon. I will also back Petra Kvitova each-way at 14/1 – 16/1, Kiki Bertens at 20/1 – 25/1 and Julia Goerges at 66/1.

Outright – Serena and Halep double chance, Petra Kvitova each-way, Kiki Bertens each way and Julia Goerges (Goerges a small cover bet to nick a few quid).

renaandhaleppreview2018

1st Quarter – no bet

2nd Quarter – Julia Goerges & a cover bet on Elise Mertens

3rd Quarter – Madsion Keys & a cover bet on Jelena Ostapenko

4th Quarter –  Kiki Bertens & a cover on Kvitova

Happy punting and let’s hope we see some fantastic tennis. Come on Serena!

Andy Del Potro.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s